Blog & Resources

Economic Risk Monitor – 2024 Q1

We once again find ourselves reversing our position on the overall direction of the economy for 2024, as the resilience of consumer activity drives surprisingly strong output growth that appears to be sustainable.

The Swiss Army Knives of Credit Unions: The Crucial Role of Risk Professionals

In the landscape of the financial services industry, credit unions serve as pillars of trust, stability and support for their members. Amidst the ever-evolving challenges and uncertainties credit unions face, risk professionals play a pivotal and critical role. While...

Economic Risk Monitor – 2023 Q4

“The only constant is change” is a quote that is mistakenly attributed to the Greek philosopher Heraclitus, but the misattribution doesn’t make the axiom any less true.

Twas the night before New Year’s

‘Twas the night before New Year’s, two-thousand-fifteen, A most interesting year on the ERM scene. Consumers were vulnerable to hackers’ reaches, As merchants were “Targets” of broad data breaches. Emerging technologies...

Interest Rate Risk

The NCUA is hyper-focused on interest rate risk (IRR). They go so far as to include an “Interest Rate Risk Resources” button on their main webpage that includes, among other items, a video featuring NCUA Chief Economist...

When good is bad

The latest home price numbers (through May, according to S&P/Case-Shiller) looked pretty solid: the benchmark 20-City Composite measure was up 9.3% year-over-year (YOY).  All 20 markets posted gains on an unadjusted...

Every rose has its thorns

A number of economists are presenting a pretty rosy outlook for the U.S. economy over the next several quarters. While I don’t disagree with the general positive direction of their forecasts, nor with the general...

Your future is upside-down

No assessment of a credit union’s risk is complete without a macro outlook on the economy and interest rates. But how can a credit union best develop a forward view of economic factors? As the old joke goes, if you line up...