by Brian Hague | Apr 8, 2024 | Economics, Enterprise Risk Management, Governance, Lending, Risk Management, Strategy
We once again find ourselves reversing our position on the overall direction of the economy for 2024, as the resilience of consumer activity drives surprisingly strong output growth that appears to be sustainable. That outlook is dashing hopes for Fed easing anytime...
by Brian Hague | Jan 2, 2024 | Economics, Enterprise Risk Management, Risk Appetite Assessment, Risk Management, Strategy
“The only constant is change” is a quote that is mistakenly attributed to the Greek philosopher Heraclitus, but the misattribution doesn’t make the axiom any less true. In the 2023 Q2 report, we anticipated an economic downturn beginning in 2024. By the following...
by Brian Hague | Dec 30, 2023 | Economics, Enterprise Risk Management, Risk Appetite Assessment, Risk Management, Strategy, Vendor Management
‘Twas the Night Before New Year’s, twenty-twenty-four, And all of us wondered what might lay in store For the coming new year. What would twenty-four bring? Just what to expect had us all pondering. The Fed, they appear to be done with their hiking; A prospect...
by Brian Hague | Dec 18, 2023 | Economics, Enterprise Risk Management, Risk Management, Strategy
The headline inflation rate – specifically, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) – has declined on a year-over-year basis from a peak of 8.9% in June of 2022 to 3.2% as of October, the latest reading. Last June’s inflation level was the highest since 1981. The decline has...
by Brian Hague | Sep 22, 2023 | Economics, Enterprise Risk Management, Lending, Risk Management, Strategy
Our Q2 outlook called for an economic downturn commencing in 2024. However, based on the strength of more recent data, we are revising our forecast. It now appears that the Fed may succeed in engineering a soft landing, a feat that has eluded the central bank in the...
by Brian Hague | Jul 7, 2023 | Economics, Enterprise Risk Management, Risk Appetite Assessment, Risk Management, Strategy
With the media-manufactured “systemic banking crisis” apparently behind us, the bond market has returned its focus to inflation data. As a result, yields have returned to near March levels, and the inversion in the curve has reached its steepest point this cycle....