by Brian Hague | Nov 20, 2023 | Uncategorized
Things are moving fast in the U.S. economy, so we want to provide a mid-quarter update. We continue to expect an upside surprise in Q4 economic growth, based on the strength of consumer-driven Q3 growth. The holiday spending season should carry that strength through...
by Brian Hague | Nov 2, 2023 | Enterprise Risk Management, Operational Risk Assessment, Risk Management, Strategy
Back to the Basics: What is risk? Legendary football coach Vince Lombardi opened training camp for the Green Bay Packers in 1961 in historic fashion. The Packers had blown a 4th-quarter lead in the NFL Championship Game against the Eagles the previous year. The...
by Brian Hague | Sep 22, 2023 | Economics, Enterprise Risk Management, Lending, Risk Management, Strategy
Our Q2 outlook called for an economic downturn commencing in 2024. However, based on the strength of more recent data, we are revising our forecast. It now appears that the Fed may succeed in engineering a soft landing, a feat that has eluded the central bank in the...
by Brian Hague | Jul 7, 2023 | Economics, Enterprise Risk Management, Risk Appetite Assessment, Risk Management, Strategy
With the media-manufactured “systemic banking crisis” apparently behind us, the bond market has returned its focus to inflation data. As a result, yields have returned to near March levels, and the inversion in the curve has reached its steepest point this cycle....
by Brian Hague | Apr 10, 2023 | Economics, Enterprise Risk Management, Strategy
Data from the first quarter of 2023 is beginning to show cracks in the U.S. economy’s performance. While headline inflation has receded, households are still beset with higher prices. The Fed has continued to firm monetary policy, but market interest rates declined in...
